Zoomlion (000157): Employee share-sharing benefits highlight the company’s future development confidence
Event: On November 16, 2019, the company issued an announcement that it plans to increase the average price to 5.
49 yuan / share repurchase of 3.
900 million shares are used for core employee stock ownership plans.
This employee shareholding plan accounts for 4 of the company’s total share capital.
96% (as of September 30, 2019), the average employee transfer price was 2.
75 yuan / share.
Opinion: We believe that the company’s release of the core backbone employee stock ownership plan has two meanings: ① improve employee cohesion, promote the stability of the company’s core backbone team, reflect the company’s 无锡桑拿网 understanding of talents, and help the company’s long-term healthy development; ② high-performance evaluation indicators, Highlighting the company’s full confidence in the industry and its own future development.
We are optimistic about the continued prosperity of the construction machinery industry. As a post-cycle product title company, the company will give full play to its advantageous businesses. At the same time, it will share the benefits of employee shareholdings, have more development momentum, and maintain a “strong recommendation” rating.
Employee share-holding benefit sharing is beneficial to the long-term healthy development of the company.
The upcoming core backbone shareholding plan is targeted at Dong Jiangao, with core technical and business personnel not exceeding 1,200. In addition to traditional concrete machinery and crane machinery, it will also focus on new businesses such as earthmoving machinery, aerial work platforms and agricultural machinery.The core staff fully reflects the company’s talents, the incentive mechanism is more complete, and the cohesion and enthusiasm of employees will be more prominent.
The company launched equity incentives in 2017. At that time, in order to mobilize employees’ enthusiasm, reorganization gave shareholders confidence in holding shares. At present, the completion of the equity incentive plan is better. For uncertain 2020, the company launched thisThe sub-employee shareholding plan will also carry on and build on the strengths of the next three years. The sharing of benefits between executives and employees is conducive to the long-term healthy development of the company.
High-performance assessment indicators demonstrate confidence in future development.
The employee shareholding is unlocked in phases, and the performance is evaluated based on the arithmetic average of the net profit attributable to mothers in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and the three-year net profit rate in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
According to our forecast, net profit attributable to mothers in 201942.
9.6 billion, calculated that the average net profit attributable to mothers for 2017-2019 is 25.
49 billion, converted into a base number, the performance assessment index by year and longer, requires that the three-year return to the mother’s net profit in 2020-2022 is at a base number of 25.
On the basis of 4.9 billion, the expansion should reach 80% / 90% / 100% respectively, corresponding to 45.
8.8 billion / 48.
4.3 billion / 50.
9.8 billion, with an average performance of 48 in the next three years.
US $ 4.3 billion (without considering the amortization of the cost of the shareholding plan, it will be higher if considered). The high-performance evaluation standard shows that the company is confident in the industry and its own future development.
In the post-cycle product relay, the company’s future performance is expected to maintain steady growth.
The prosperity of the construction machinery industry in 2019 continues, especially the sales growth rate of post-cycle products such as cranes and concrete machinery is still relatively high. The company’s advantage segment has grown strongly, with total revenue of 317 in the first three quarters.
55 billion, a growth rate of 50.
96%, looking forward to 2020, we believe that: ① Engineering cranes: Affected by the start-up sequence and the update cycle, the crane relay excavator continues the high growth trend, and the environmental protection requirements increase, accelerating the crane replacement process.The rate continues to increase, the proportion of large and medium tonnage cranes is increased, and we will strive to maintain steady growth in the future.
②Construction cranes: The proportion of prefabricated buildings continues to increase, and the demand for large-tonn meters of tower cranes is strong. From the perspective of the Pangyuan Leasing Index, tower cranes used 76 in October 2019.
At 6%, the company still maintains a high level. As a leader in tower cranes, the company has full product and technology reserves and will take the lead to benefit from the dividends brought by the expansion of downstream demand. Next year, tower cranes are expected to become the category of all products with accelerated growth.
③Concrete machinery: The company’s concrete machinery pump truck with long boom continued to maintain the number one position in the industry. This year, the pump truck’s growth rate far exceeded the overall growth rate of concrete machinery. The company’s concrete machinery revenue in the first half of the year was 74.
9 billion, previously +31.
15%, looking forward to next year, under the requirements of super governance and environmental protection updates, concrete machinery is still expected to maintain steady growth, especially pump trucks. The current market of pump trucks is about 60,000 units. Based on 10 years of calculation, it may be the case.The annual update demand is 6,000 units, while the market sales in 2018 are only more than 4,000 units, and there is still room for upside in the next three years.
Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will be 42 in 2019-2021.
98 and 59.
48 ppm, an increase of 112 in ten years.
65% and 10.
18%; corresponding to EPS0.
55, 0.69 and 0.
76 yuan, corresponding to PE 11.
10 times, maintain “highly 合肥夜网 recommended” level.
Risk warning: Infrastructure investment is less than expected, and downstream fixed asset investment is significantly reduced.